Early Predictors of Mathematics Achievement and Mathematics Learning Difficulties
Nancy C. Jordan, PhD
University of Delaware, USA
Mathematics difficulties are widespread. Up to 10% of students are diagnosed with a learning disability in mathematics at some point in their school careers.1,2 Many more learners struggle in mathematics without a formal diagnosis. Mathematics difficulties are persistent, and students who have difficulties may never catch up to their normally achieving peers.
Foundations for mathematics achievement are established before children enter primary school.3,4 Identification of key predictors of mathematics outcomes provides support for screening, intervention and progress monitoring before children fall seriously behind in school.
The consequences of poor mathematics achievement are serious for everyday functioning, educational attainment, and career advancement.5 Mathematics competence is necessary for entry into STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) disciplines in college and for STEM occupations.6 There are large group differences in mathematics achievement related to socioeconomic status7 as well as individual differences in fundamental learning abilities.8 These differences are already present in early childhood and increase over the course of schooling.
Longitudinal studies of characteristics of children with mathematics difficulties have identified important targets for intervention. Most children enter school with number sense that is relevant to learning school mathematics. Preverbal components of number (e.g., exact representations of small quantities and approximate representations of larger quantities) develop in infancy.9,10,11 Although these primary foundations are thought to underlie learning of conventional mathematics skills, they are not sufficient. Most children with difficulties in mathematics are characterized by weaknesses in secondary symbolic number sense related to whole numbers, number relations and number operations12 – areas that are malleable and influenced by experience.13
Key Research Questions
In the area of literacy, reliable and valid early screening measures have led to effective interventions and supports in early childhood and later.14 Intermediate measures closely tied to reading (e.g., knowledge of letter sounds) are more predictive of reading achievement than are more general competencies. Similarly, in the numeracy area, early competencies that are allied with the mathematics children are required to do in school are most predictive of mathematics achievement and difficulties.15 Key longitudinal predictors of mathematics performance need to be identified for early screening.
Recent Research Results
Early number competencies are important for setting children’s achievement trajectories in mathematics.16,17 Mathematics difficulties and disabilities have their roots in weak number sense.18,19 Children with developmental dyscalculia, a severe form of mathematics disability, are characterized by deficits in recognizing and comparing numbers and in counting and enumerating sets of objects.18
Short-term longitudinal studies (from the beginning to the end of the kindergarten year) reveal that numeracy indicators of counting, quantity discrimination, and number naming are moderate to strong predictors of mathematics achievement.20,21,22 Moreover, performance on numeracy indicators in preschool predicts performance on similar measures in kindergarten.23 Low-income children enter kindergarten well behind their middle-income peers on numeracy indicators, and this gap does not narrow during the course of the school year.12
Longitudinal studies over multiple time points, from the beginning of kindergarten through the end of Grade 3, suggest that foundational number sense supports the learning of complex mathematics associated with computation as well as applied problem solving.15,17,24,25 Kindergarten numeracy related to counting, numerical magnitude comparisons, nonverbal calculation, and verbal arithmetic predict mathematics level and rate of achievement in Grades 1 through 3. The low mathematics achievement of high-risk, low-income students is mediated by early number competence. Number competence also predicts later mathematics outcomes over and above IQ variables.26 Kindergarten competence with simple arithmetic calculations involving addition and subtraction is most predictive of later mathematics achievement. Because early number competencies are achievable in most children4 their intermediate effects provide direction for early intervention.
Three underlying cognitive pathways ̶̶ quantitative, linguistic and spatial ̶̶ contribute independently to number competencies in preschool and kindergarten.27Linguistic skills are unique predictors of number naming, whereas quantitative skills are unique predictors of nonverbal calculation; spatial attention is a distinct predictor of both types of early numeracy. These precursor pathways relate differently to mathematical outcomes two years later (e.g., the linguistic but not the quantitative pathway is uniquely predictive of geometry and measurement concepts). A pathway model may explain why learners perform relatively well in one area of mathematics but not in another.28
Screening tools for identifying foundational number competencies in preschool and kindergarten need to be developed and validated for use in schools, clinics and other educational settings. Interventions for children with, or who are at risk for, mathematics learning difficulties should be devised and evaluated through randomized controlled studies. In particular, researchers must study how gains in specific areas of number competence can be achieved most effectively and whether gains can be sustained over time and generalized to mathematics learning. Further it is important to differentiate more and less effective methods of increasing number competence.
Difficulties with mathematics are pervasive and can have lifelong consequences. Foundational number competencies develop before Grade 1 and are highly predictive of mathematics achievement and difficulties. Higher levels of kindergarten number competence predict statistically significant and substantively meaningful performance in mathematics applications and computation at the end of Grade 3. Symbolic number competencies associated with whole number relations, and operations are particularly important. Number competence depends on language abilities (e.g., knowing number names), as well as on quantitative and spatial knowledge (combining and separating sets). Although there are poorer long-term outcomes for low-income children than for middle-income children, mathematics achievement is moderated by early number competencies. Low-income children enter school with relatively few number-related experiences,29 which contributes to their disadvantage. The intermediate effect of number competence on mathematics achievement suggests that it should be emphasized in preschool and kindergarten. Overall, early number sense is critical for setting mathematics trajectories in mathematics throughout elementary school.
Implications for Parents, Service, and Policy
In today’s schools, mathematics learning difficulties and disabilities often are not identified before Grade 4. Early interventions in mathematics are far less common than are those for reading. Kindergarten teachers should screen students for numeracy difficulties, similar to the way that most screen for early literacy difficulties. Preschools and kindergartens should provide mathematics experiences and instruction in number, number relations and number operations.4 This number core should emphasize the number word list, counting principles related to cardinality and one-to-one correspondence, comparing set sizes, and joining and separating sets. Number lists and simple board games using number lists can help children make sense of quantities.30 Curriculum developers in early childhood should focus their materials on these core number foundations. Children in schools serving low-income communities are especially at risk for learning difficulties with mathematics. Low-income children enter kindergarten well behind their middle-income counterparts. Early interventions can help all children build the foundations they need to achieve in mathematics.
- Barbaresi MJ, Katusic SK, Colligan RC, Weaver AL, Jacobsen SJ. Math learning disorder: Incidence in a population-based birth cohort, 1976-1982, Rochester, Minn. Ambulatory Pediatrics 2005;5(5):281-289.
- Shalev RS, Manor O, Gross-Tsur V. Developmental dyscalculia: A prospective six-year follow-up. Developmental Medicine and Child Neurology2005;47:121-125.
- Clements DH, Sarama J. Early childhood mathematics learning. In: Lester JFK, ed. Second handbook of research on mathematics teaching and learning. New York, NY: Information Age Publishing; 2007:461-555.
- Cross CT, Woods TA, Schweingruber H, National Research Council, Committee on Early Childhood Mathematics, eds. Mathematics learning in early childhood: Paths toward excellence and equity. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2009.
- Sadler PM, Tai RH. The two high-school pillars supporting college science. Science 2007;317:457-458.
- National Mathematics Advisory Panel (NMAP). Foundations for success: The final report of the National Mathematics Advisory Panel. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education; 2008
- Lubienski ST. A clash of social class cultures? Students’ experiences in a discussion-intensive seventh-grade mathematics classroom.The Elementary School Journal 2000;100(4):377-403.
- Geary DC, Hoard MK, Byrd-Craven J, Nugent L, Numtee C. Cognitive mechanisms underlying achievement deficits in children with mathematical learning disability. Child Development 2007;78(4):1343-1359.
- Berch DB. Making sense of number sense: Implications for children with mathematical disabilities.Journal of Learning Disabilities2005;38(4):333-339.
- Dehaene S. The number sense: How the mind creates mathematics. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 1997.
- Feigenson L, Dehaene S, Spelke E. Core systems of number. TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences 2004;8(7):307-314.
- Jordan NC, Levine SC. Socioeconomic variation, number competence, and mathematics learning difficulties in young children. Developmental Disabilities Research Reviews 2009;15:60-68.
- Case R, Griffin S. Child cognitive development: The role of central conceptual structures in the development of scientific and social thought. In: Hauert EA, ed. Developmental psychology: Cognitive, perceptuo-motor, and neurological perspectives. North-Holland: Elsevier; 1990: 1993-230.
- Schatschneider C, Carlson CD, Francis DJ, Foorman BR, Fletcher JM. Relationship of rapid automatized naming and phonological awareness in early reading development: Implications for the double-digit hypothesis. Journal of Learning Disabilities 2002;35(3):245-256.
- Jordan NC, Glutting J, Ramineni C. The importance of number sense to mathematics achievement in first and third grades. Learning and Individual Differences 2010;20:82-88.
- Duncan GJ, Dowsett CJ, Classens A, Magnuson K, Huston AC, Klebanov P, Pagani LS, Feinstein L, Engel M, Brooks-Gunn J, Sexton H, Duckworth K, Japel C. School readiness and later achievement. Developmental Psychology2007;43(6):1428-1446.
- Jordan NC, Kaplan D, Ramineni C, Locuniak MN. Early Math Matters: Kindergarten Number Competence and Later Mathematics Outcomes. Developmental Psychology 2009;3(45):850-867.
- Landerl K, Bevan A, Butterworth B. Developmental dyscalculia and basic numerical capacities: A study of 8 ̶ 9-year-old students. Cognition 2004;93:99-125.
- Mazzocco MM, Thompson RE. Kindergarten predictors of math learning disability. Learning Disabilities Research and Practice 2005;20(3):142-155.
- Clarke B, Shinn MR. A preliminary investigation into the identification and development of early mathematics curriculum-based measurement. School Psychology Review 2004;33(2):234-248.
- Lembke E, Foegen A. Identifying early numeracy indicators in for kindergarten and first-grade students. Learning Disabilities Research and Practice 2009;24:2-20.
- Methe SA, Hintze JM, Floyd RG. Validation and decision accuracy of early numeracy skill indicators. School Psychology Review 2008;37:359-373.
- VanDerHeyden AM, Broussard C, Cooley A. Further development of measures of early math performance for preschoolers. Journal of School Psychology 2006:44:533-553.
- Jordan NC, Kaplan D, Locuniak MN, Ramineni C. Predicting first-grade math achievement from developmental number sense trajectories. Learning Disabilities Research & Practice 2007;22(1):36-46.
- Jordan NC, Kaplan D, Olah L, Locuniak MN. Number sense growth in kindergarten: A longitudinal investigation of children at risk for mathematics difficulties. Child Development 2006;77:153-175.
- Locuniak MN, Jordan NC. Using kindergarten number sense to predict calculation fluency in second grade. Journal of Learning Disabilities 2008;41(5):451-459.
- LeFevre J, Fast L, Skwarchuk SL, Smith-Chant BL, Bisanz J, Kamawar D, Penner-Wilger M. Pathways to mathematics: Longitudinal predictors of performance. Child Development. In press.
- Mazzocco MM. Defining and differentiating mathematical learning difficulties and disabilities. In: Berch DB, Mazzocco MMM, eds. Why is math so hard for some children? The nature and origins of mathematical learning difficulties and disabilities. Baltimore, MD: Paul H. Brookes; 2007: 29-48
- Clements DH, Sarama J. Experimental evaluation of the effects of a research-based preschool mathematics curriculum. American Education Research Journal 2008; 45(2), 443-494.
- Ramani GB, Siegler RS. Promoting broad and stable improvements in low-income children’s numerical knowledge through playing number board games. Child Development 2008;79:375-394.
How to cite this article:
Jordan NC. Early Predictors of Mathematics Achievement and Mathematics Learning Difficulties. In: Tremblay RE, Boivin M, Peters RDeV, eds. Bisanz J, topic ed. Encyclopedia on Early Childhood Development [online]. http://www.child-encyclopedia.com/numeracy/according-experts/early-predictors-mathematics-achievement-and-mathematics-learning. Published June 2010. Accessed October 13, 2019.